Archive for February, 2011

A new oil crisis anyone?

Mon, 28th Feb 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE 100 at 25th Feb 2011Given the political situation in the arab world, I’ve decided that this is the start of a correction. The FTSE was rather jittery this morning, but the Saudi announcement of increased oil production to make up for Libyan losses calmed things down again by lunchtime. This afternoon it was up a few points to the level of the 20-day moving average, which is a likely turning point. As it is difficult to see how the news, in this time of unrest, can get any more positive, I have sold June FTSE with the index at around 6000. The messages are back at full-on bombardment, saying that the FTSE is about to plummet, so I am probably completely wrong though, as they rarely tell the truth.

Categories: Betting, Lunacy

Ha! That went well – naht!

Tue, 22nd Feb 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE at 21 Feb 2011Yesterday’s bet closed within 24 hours at a 100% loss; I should have waited for the breakout to be confirmed! I always expected this to be the last peak before a correction, but I expected it to be much higher. The correction could have started or this could just be a short pause for breath – I’ll have to wait a while to find out.

Categories: Betting

A breakthrough on the upside

Mon, 21st Feb 2011 Leave a comment

Well the FTSE has broken out of its recent range and gone slightly above 6100 this morning so I’ve got straight back in and bought June FTSE at 6050. There may be a few wobbles yet before the break out is confirmed, but I’m prepared to take the chance now.

Categories: Betting

Too much resistance!

Fri, 18th Feb 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE 18th Feb 2011I have bottled out at a 2 point loss due to the reluctance of the FTSE to break through 6100. There is just too much danger of the next move being down below 6000 before the 6100 level is breached. Had I opened the bet at 5985 like I should have, this would have been a profitable trade, but there you go!  It could still go either way, but I’m not prepared to risk it.

Categories: Betting

Right the first time?

Tue, 15th Feb 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE 100 at 11th Feb 2011On Friday morning the FTSE hit 5974 (the 20-day moving average) and bounced back, so plan B was partly correct, but I now feel that, due to the strength of the bounce,  the market is unlikely to close at that level. I think my original plan is still on target, but having missed out on getting back into the market below 6000 (the messages were adamant I should wait and so put me off) I bought back last night at about 6065. It is always dodgy getting back in in the middle of a run, but if I don’t, I’ll probably miss out on a good profit. There is still a real danger of going back to the moving average though, in which case I’ll probably lose my bet as I’ve rolled over my profits and only have a 100 point leeway.

Categories: Betting

Hmm, time for Plan B

Thu, 10th Feb 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE 9th Feb 2011The FTSE has come down again today, below 6000, so it is not doing what I had hoped. Since there seems to be insufficient momentum to drive it forward, I think it is prudent to close my bet at a 64% profit – not bad for a week-and-a-half’s gain!  I am hoping that the FTSE will bounce off the 20 day moving average (the green line above) and make at least 6200 before probably coming back down to 6000 again, but I’ll just wait and see for now.

Categories: Betting

If at First You Don’t Succeed …

Sun, 6th Feb 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 2010/11Well, I’ve decided to take the plunge again as the messages have been very obtuse lately and not disturbing me too much. My hopes for a crash at the end of last year didn’t come off (even though the chart pattern looked compelling) so I have re-evaluated the recent moves and decided that the FTSE is about to surge to a peak over the next few weeks based on a similar pattern of behaviour seen in early 1994. I have bought March FTSE at 5950 with a view to a four hundred point or so, rise. They say “buy on the dips” and that’s what I am doing.

Categories: Betting