Archive for March, 2011

Back to normal!

Thu, 24th Mar 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-10 at 24th March 2011The FTSE reached my target of 5860 this morning and sat there for about three hours before making further progress and the Dow is well above my prediction. Although the Japanese earthquake still remains very serious for Japan, like every negative event recently the Western markets seem to have decided to overlook it and focus instead on the recovery. The FTSE was a bit subdued pre-budget, but seems reinvigorated after it proved much as expected with no nasty surprises and a reduction in corporation tax. Incredibly, the fact that Western government over-indebtedness is still getting worse, does not seem to be worrying anyone too much and it looks like the market will continue to rise from here for now.

Categories: Betting

Prepare for a rebound

Fri, 18th Mar 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 17th March 2011The FTSE didn’t bounce off the floor in my previous post, but instead seems to have chosen 5600 as its support level. I think the initial panic over the Japanese earthquake and its nuclear aftermath is over and a relief rally in the offing with my target being about 5860 (the red line above). This would take us to (probably) just over the 20 day moving average and a significant level in the last two waves of the rally which I believe has just ended. It would take the Dow to around 12000 which is also a significant level and a likely turning point.

Categories: Betting

Has the bubble burst?

Wed, 16th Mar 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 15th March 2011WED 08:30 – So far so good for my plan; the FTSE has continued to fall below its twelve week low, but has now hit the bottom of its recent channel of trading. I would expect a bounce at least at this point, though, if the floor holds, it could be the end of the falls. I don’t think it will be as I believe the horrendous earthquake in Japan on Friday has burst the bubble of the economic recovery. The facts that the FTSE touched 5600 yesterday morning before recovering and is flat this morning even though the Nikkei has rebounded 5% overnight suggest sentiment is still weak.

P.S. some support for my view came in this morning from Money Week. It should be noted however, that they have been persistently bearish all the way up this rally!

Categories: Betting

Time for a rethink

Fri, 11th Mar 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 10th March 2011Recently I have just been to-ing and fro-ing with the market which is a hopeless way of making money. I need to pause and take stock, but the conspirators are putting me under a lot of duress at the moment by interfering with my energy levels every time I question their forecasts so it is going to be very difficult to be objective.

However, now that the FTSE has broken out of it recent range, closing at a twelve week low, we can say that this is a turning point with some confidence. The Dow touched its 50 day moving average last night so I wouldn’t be surprised to see a bit of a bounce this afternoon, but I think over the medium term we should see the market fall. The market’s biggest concern is still the oil price and arab unrest spreading (which I don’t see going away), but there are also increasing eurozone debt worries and poor economic statistics from China and the USA.

Categories: Betting, Lunacy

Just a pause for breath

Fri, 4th Mar 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 3rd March 2011It looks like the market is going to ignore the arab unrest for now as it has gone back into recovery mode. Given how flat the FTSE has been for the last two and a half months I think we could be getting close to the next turning point though. For now, I’m looking for more sideways progress gently rising to around 6300 perhaps. I would expect some oscillation around the 20-day moving average when the rally starts to falter.

Categories: Betting

Don’t panic! Don’t panic!

Wed, 2nd Mar 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE 100 at 1st March 2011Well, I wasn’t able to take lance-corporal Jones’ advice and it cost me. The conspirators do occasionally throw in an accurate prediction when they know it’ll wrong foot me and it did. I think this correction has the potential to be quite large if the arab unrest spreads as it might. I am playing with my ISA at the moment and, if I make any profit on that, I might be tempted to put a little of it into betting.

It is important not to be too disheartened by my abject failure so far as it is notoriously difficult to predict turning points. There is a pattern which has occurred seven or eight times at peaks during the twenty-five years I have been watching the markets, but it didn’t happen this time. Generally, it is much easier to make money when the market is following a trend (“the trend is your friend” as the saying goes) and, hopefully, we have just started a new, down, trend.

Categories: Betting, Lunacy

That’s not the way to do it!

Tue, 1st Mar 2011 Leave a comment

Well, the FTSE is up this morning and I regret betting yesterday as, with hindsight, I was influenced by the messages again (and that always costs me money). So I have reversed my bet – a bit of a panic move – but the way the moving average has turned up in the last few says suggests there is a bit more life in the bull run yet.

It would seem that, so far, writing this blog hasn’t helped me act any more rationally as I had hoped it would. When I lose this bet I will be out of the market for a while as I have no more spare money.

Categories: Betting, Lunacy