Archive for May, 2011

How far will it go down?

Mon, 23rd May 2011 Leave a comment

The FTSE has dropped this morning to its previous low and wiped out my bet, giving back last month’s profit. I am not particularly surprised – it was always a danger – the only question now is will it continue to fall? The conspirators have been quite scathing about my thoughts that we could have a significant downturn, so who knows?

In hindsight, there were warning signs of the second drop: the index poked its nose over 6000 on Thursday and Friday, but in a very unconvincing, two steps forward and one step back, kind of way. I should have taken the opportunity to change my mind again really. In answer to my question above, I think 5800 looks a likely support level – I wouldn’t be surprised to see the FTSE bounce off it, but the Eurozone crisis is rearing its head again and if Spain goes under then we could see carnage in the markets.

Categories: Betting, Lunacy

I don’t want to miss out completely!

Thu, 19th May 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 18th May 2011The Dow did fall further on Tuesday, but recovered by the close. The FTSE stayed above the intra-day low of the last dip (5858) and has since bounced back. It is up again today, so it is looking like my analysis wasn’t far off on Monday and I’ve taken a chance and bought back in. I don’t like returning to the market while it’s in the middle of a trading range as there is always the chance it could fall back to the bottom (for which I have insufficient margin) before hitting the top, but I’ve done it anyway. I have bought September FTSE at 5940 (index at 5983) with a 109 point margin.

Categories: Betting

That wasn’t in the plan!

Tue, 17th May 2011 Leave a comment

The FTSE did rebound yesterday afternoon as expected, closing down just 2 points, but the Dow has opened more than 80 points down today and, although it is rebounding a bit, I suspect that it won’t last. This weakness is most unexpected and so, consequently, I have taken the opportunity to close yesterday’s bet at a 9 point profit – a lucky escape.

Categories: Betting

Time for a surge?

Mon, 16th May 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 13th May 2011The FTSE is down 45 points this morning, just above the low of the previous dip, so I’m sticking to my guns and betting on a rebound from this dip. I have bought September FTSE at 5833 with a 100 point margin. I am hoping the index will close up slightly today and then make 6200 over the next few weeks. I know that was my target last time and we didn’t make it, but that just improves the odds this time!

There has been a general malaise over Chinese growth prospects (and what that means for commodities) and the US economy, but these issues have been around for a while now and there has been no specific event to trigger recent concerns so I think it’s about time for the market to get over them, as, to me, the chart is suggesting a surge. Intriguingly, the messages have not tried to put me off this bet, so I am wondering whether, with me successfully overcoming¬† their interference last time, they might be trusting me to make a mess of this one all by myself.

Categories: Betting, Lunacy

That was quick!

Thu, 5th May 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at close on 4th May 2011The next move appears to have arrived sooner than I expected: the FTSE took a tumble yesterday and is down again today (at midday). The fact that it has, once again, failed to break through 6100 is a strong sign that the rally is coming to an end I feel, particularly when you compare the FTSE with the Dow which has continued rising since November whereas the FTSE has stayed relatively flat:

Dow Jones at close on the 4th May 2011This can partly be explained by the fall in the value of the dollar, but I still feel that this unusual level of divergence between the two indices is a bearish signal.

At the moment, I am hoping the the FTSE will stay above the low of the previous dip (as the last peak was slightly above the previous one) and that the rebound will lead to the final peak of this rally, but I’ll just be waiting and watching for now.

Categories: Betting