Archive for July, 2011

A peak signal!

Fri, 29th Jul 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 28th July 2011Further to my last post, I have spotted a pattern in the FTSE chart which indicates that we have reached a turning point. The pattern of one bounce just above the 20-day moving average (point A) followed by two dips below it (points B and C) is one that I have seen seven times before in the 25 years or so I have been following the markets and has indicated the end of a rally with 100% reliability. The previous instances are as follows (the figures are the sizes of the last peak from point C and the subsequent drop after that):

  1. June 1987           +7.6%              -36% (the 1987 crash)
  2. August 1991       +5.5%              -12.5%
  3. May 1992            +0.3%              -16.6%
  4. February 1993  +5.0%              -5.8%
  5. January 1994    +2.7%              -18.3%
  6. January 1995    +5.4%              -5.5%
  7. April 2010          +1.5%              -17.5%

As you can see from the figures above, the size of the final peak varies widely so I am not confident of betting on a bounce at the moment; the index may only climb above the mavg for a single day before turning, or, if we get a resolution to the US debt talks for instance, there could be a much larger bounce. Personally, I think Vince Cable is right; the US is being held to ransom by the Tea Party, who are a bunch of right-wing nutters, and who will happily see their government default just to make a point, so I am expecting a small bounce this time. The subsequent dip, however, could be very large indeed – I wouldn’t be surprised to see the FTSE go below 3000.

Categories: Betting, Tea Party

Could the end finally be nigh?

Mon, 18th Jul 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 15th July 2011I’ve been calling the end to this bear market rally for about a year now, but could the increasing worries over Italy finally mean that we are reaching the endgame for the Eurozone debt crisis? Italy’s debts are becoming increasingly expensive to service and with that country being the third largest economy in the Eurozone it is definitely too big to bail out. I have read that it is also the third largest bond issuer in the world so if it became unable to repay its debts this would have a significant effect on banks worldwide. The rally has gone on for so long now, against the odds, that I have my doubts it will ever end, and the conspirators are adamant that the only way is down for the stock market now, so I have little confidence in my thesis, but with the problems in the US economic recovery and a possible slowdown in China as well, things are looking a bit dodgy to say the least.

Categories: Lunacy, The Economy

A better use

Sat, 9th Jul 2011 Leave a comment

In view of my poor performance over recent months I have banked my stake money and given most of it to the East African drought appeal. I’d probably have just lost it again, but I might have another go in a couple of months.

Categories: Betting

US employment scuppers my trade

Fri, 8th Jul 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 7th July 2011I’ve closed my bet at a 5 point loss after today’s US payroll figures came out well below expectations and the FTSE index and Dow futures plummeted. The FTSE had risen to 6080 immediately prior to the numbers coming out and, if I had been watching, I would probably have settled for that, as these figures often mark an intra-day turning point. It may bounce back in the coming days, but I don’t want to take the risk of losing the rest of my stake; it’s better to preserve it and look for another opportunity.

Categories: Betting

There’s more to come

Mon, 4th Jul 2011 Leave a comment

After looking at charts of previous such dips over the weekend, I’ve decided that the FTSE should at least make its previous high, so I’ve bought September FTSE at 5958 (index at 5987) with a 100 point margin. I would expect a pause for breath soon, possibly today, but then the FTSE should continue to 6100. The conspirators are vaguely suggesting there’s more to come as well, so I have my doubts, but I’m willing to give it a go.

Categories: Betting, Lunacy

Hmm, I got that one wrong!

Sat, 2nd Jul 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 1st July 2011The FTSE has shot up (following the Dow) though I can’t really see why. The passing of Greek austerity measures is just putting off the inevitable default for a little while longer and all the underlying problems in the Eurozone remain. I did think about hanging on a bit longer before selling, but, having escaped the second dip, I was just grateful to be able to close with a reasonable profit. I don’t really have a clue what to expect next with the market behaving this irrationally, so I’ve decided to bank my modest gains.

Categories: Betting