Archive for December, 2011

All quiet on the western front…

Sat, 31st Dec 2011 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 30th December 2011FTSE up 200 points over the last two weeks – I had expected a bit more of a Christmas rally really. Dow up 5.5% over the year, FTSE down 5.5% over the year – again not much to write home about. The markets are holding up surprisingly well given all the shenanigans in Europe, but I still think we’re in for a major slump at some point – there’s just too much debt in the world. All that credit based “growth” we borrowed from the future has to be paid back, and, when it is, we’re in for a major recession. Hopefully it will be in the coming year as the sooner we get it over with the easier it will be on us all and the sooner we can get back to genuine growth. The longer it is put off the worse it will be!

Categories: Betting, The Economy

Ah well, I said it was a punt!

Tue, 13th Dec 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 13th December 2011Unsurprisingly, I have lost yesterday’s bet (the conspirators said it was going down and betting with them hardly ever works). Things are looking more positive (for now!) in the US and I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Dow drag the FTSE up towards 6000 over the next couple of months. It will remain volatile though and, when Mr. Market finally turns his attention the the massive US deficit, all hell could break loose.

Categories: Betting, Lunacy

A spike minimum?

Mon, 12th Dec 2011 Leave a comment

FTSE-100 at 12th Dec 2011I’m having a punt on the recent spike reversing to the 5100-5000 area which would give a spike minimum pattern. Although these usually peak below the 20-day moving average (the green line), recent volatility could mean this occasion is an exception. We’d then be set for a Christmas rally (hopefully the last one before the big slump!). I have sold March FTSE at 5377.

Categories: Betting