Archive for March, 2012

Betting on a bounce

Thu, 29th Mar 2012 Leave a comment

Chart of Dow Jones at 23rd March 2012I have bought June FTSE at 5703 (index at 5743) in expectation of a bounce as we have now hit the previous low. I have rolled up my profit from my previous bet and used a 100 point margin. My initial target is the 20 day moving average which is currently at 5887 and falling, though it could go higher. The FTSE still seems range-bound with no strong driving news either way and we are currently at the bottom of the range so an up bet seems sensible. The Dow, however, is still creeping up and, with most talk still being of recovery in the US, it looks like it will continue to do so for now. The FTSE’s recent loss┬árelative to the Dow could partly be explained by the gain in the pound against the dollar, but I am not entirely convinced by that.

Categories: Betting

A 150% profit!

Thu, 29th Mar 2012 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 28th March 2012The FTSE reached my target of 5750 this afternoon so I have closed my bet at a 150% profit for a change! I have bought June FTSE at 5709 and I wouldn’t be surprised if there was a bounce off 5700.

Categories: Betting

Still running!

Sat, 24th Mar 2012 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 23rd March 2012Much to my surprise, my last bet was not taken out by the 200 point gain on the Dow last week and has actually come into profit! I was all ready to give up trading on the grounds that I have found it impossible to avoid framing my decisions in terms of what the conspirators are saying when I discovered that my last bet was still running. Admittedly though, this is more by luck than judgement, as the index went well above the 20 day moving average which was where I predicted it would peak. Though their advice could not be described as optimal, I would have made money on my last two bets as well had I run with the conspirators. Could things finally be turning around? The conspirators claim they are, but, given how much money they have cost me over the years, I think it is a bit soon to judge.

I am standing by my prediction of a dip to the support at around 5750; the FTSE went to 5800 yesterday before bouncing back quite strongly and both I and the conspirators are looking for a gentle decline from here to that level before the third (and final?) leg of this bull run finally takes the index through 6000. There has been no particular reason for this dip: the markets just seem to be taking a breather before the next surge.

Categories: Betting, Lunacy

A reassessment…

Tue, 13th Mar 2012 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 12th March 2012I am wondering if, maybe, I wasn’t so wrong after all – it is just that I was far too optimistic about how far down the dip would go. It is normal for the dip at the end of the second phase in a rally to reach the level at the top of the first, which this one has already, so I have had another down bet in expectation of the index currently being in a bounce up to the 20 day moving average, as this is typical of the second phase dip. I have sold June FTSE at 5860 with a 100 point margin. I anticipate a drop back to the 5750 level followed by the third leg of the rally.

Categories: Betting

Not this time!

Thu, 8th Mar 2012 Leave a comment

The FTSE is back up at 5850 this morning and my bet has closed at a 100% loss. It appears that, like the conspirators said, this dip is just temporary and not the major one I was looking for. I’m sure they only told me the truth this time because they knew I wouldn’t believe them! That said however, unlike a lot of my bets, this one was a reasonable punt so I shouldn’t beat myself up over the fact that it has gone wrong; just hope for better luck next time.

I suspect the FTSE may get back to its previous levels and continue sideways for a bit more, only going slightly higher, and, if it does, I’d be inclined to have another go.

Categories: Betting, Lunacy

The dip I was waiting for?

Wed, 7th Mar 2012 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 6th March 2012After more than four weeks of going sideways, as I predicted (though we didn’t get the range of trading I’d hoped for), I have bet that the recent nosedive is the start of the dip I was looking for. I sold June FTSE last night at 5671 (index at 5733) with a 100 point margin. My target is the support at around 5550. Ironically, I would have been in a much better position had I kept my last bet open, but I think it would have been very stressful to watch the index going nowhere for four weeks.

Categories: Betting