Archive for August, 2013

No FTSE peak signal this time

Tue, 27th Aug 2013 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 26th August 2013There was no bounce in the FTSE back to the 20 day moving average and, as I said, I am not really surprised about that as it was what the conspirators had suggested as well. I do still think the FTSE is on its way back to 6000 though and may well stay range-bound between 6000 and 6800 for some time, as I previously predicted. The uncertainty over the timing of the QE taper will prevent any further ground being made and there is also more doubt about Greece and its need for another bailout upsetting things on this side of the pond.

MoneyWeek are strongly pushing their doom and gloom predictions again and, though I have considerable sympathy for their position, I still feel it could be some time before the debt crisis finally blows up. When it eventually does, I agree with them that we could see very big falls in most markets.

Another FTSE peak signal?

Sat, 17th Aug 2013 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 16th August 2013There seems to be another instance of my FTSE peak signal pattern emerging (rather sooner than I anticipated in my last post), with three dips close together around the 20 day moving average (the green line). For it to complete, the index needs to bounce back over the 20dma for a final peak, then I would expect it to fall back to the 6000 – 5800 area. I suspect the final peak will be quite small and the subsequent decline quite sharp, looking at previous instances of the pattern, but it is difficult to predict; if the market can overcome its jitters for the time being, then a 5% bounce to 6800 would be on the cards.

The Dow has fallen quite sharply in the last few days over renewed worries about the “taper”. It is now well below its bollinger band, which suggests a bounce would be in order, so I am optimistic about the FTSE doing the same.