Archive for July, 2014

A FTSE break-out is still on.

Sun, 27th Jul 2014 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 index at 25th July 2014.As expected, the FTSE dip seems to have fizzled out and we are back above the 20dma. Also, I have noticed a couple of contrarian indicators recently – a number of commentators have been talking about a correction as the S&P500 approaches 2,000, but there is no logical reason why there should be a dip just because we are getting near a psychologically significant barrier. And, the AAII sentiment survey shows bullishness well below its long-term average, all of which suggests that the FTSE-100 break-out is well and truly on.

At the risk of throwing good money after bad, I have been tempted into spread-betting again and am currently up about 80 points on my September FTSE up bet. I am maintaining my initial target of 8,500, but I will probably roll up my bet before then if the index does get over 7,000.

Categories: Betting, Stock Market

Looking for a break-out again!

Wed, 9th Jul 2014 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 8th July 2014The spike back to just below recent highs last week is suggestive that the dip I forecast in my last post will not materialize as the index should stay below the 20 day moving average during such a decline. Today’s level of 6,700 will probably be as low as the FTSE goes and it’s back to plan A – the break-out to a new all-time high. The markets seem to be shrugging off bad news on the back of cheap credit which is still boosting the stock market. If the FTSE can finally break through 7,000, my initial target would be 8,500. If this turns out to be the final blow-off phase of the rally though, then I think 10,000 is on the cards within 6-8 months. The FTSE looks to have been consolidating recently (it is only up about 15% in the last three years) and a good surge would be in order after this.

Categories: Stock Market