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Archive for August, 2014

I still think the FTSE is heading for 6000!

Mon, 25th Aug 2014 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 index at 25th August 2014The FTSE has continued rising since my last post and is now well above the 20 day moving average. I had thought it might hit the 20dma and go sideways for a couple of weeks before dropping, but that hasn’t happened. Provided the index remains below May’s high though, I still think the drop I forecast is on. The recent low was only 4% below the peak signal pattern, which isn’t very much, so my feeling is that this decline is not over yet. I suspect that the high will be tested again though, and the dip probably won’t quite reach 6,000 now, but it will get close. The only sticking point with this view is that the conspirators are agreeing with me and that is usually a bad sign!

Looking at the US, the S&P500 is only a couple of points off 2,000 in futures trading this morning and, although I said that there is no real reason why hitting such a level should provoke a sell-off, it has been a much-anticipated event so perhaps it will be a case of “buy on the rumour, sell on the news”. A 10% or so fall could happen after the index pokes its nose over this psychological barrier, before further progress is made. I think 3,000 could be on the cards before the rally is over, as theĀ cyclically adjusted price/earnings ratio is still well below the level seen in the year 2000.

Categories: Lunacy, Stock Market

I should have had more faith in my peak signal.

Tue, 12th Aug 2014 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 12th August 2014Well, the decline has continued and I have changed my mind again – I think the dip will get down to 6,000 (or, possibly, a bit lower). I should have had more faith in the peak signal I spotted in May – it has been very reliable so far, but I was listening to the conspirators again and that always costs me money! The stop on my bet was hit so I closed out at a 100% loss. The conspirators’ predictions do often come true eventually though, but usually only after the FTSE has done the opposite of what they say first. This dip is probably just going to be a normal, medium-size correction from which we should recover quite quickly and I still wouldn’t be surprised to see 10,000 reached in the medium term before the Western world’s sovereign debt crisis finally erupts.

The decline so far has been very gradual and that suggests a build-up to sharp drop. Consequently, I am expecting a further sharp decline of a few hundred points before the index flattens out a bit, though it could go straight down to 6,000 and, if it does, I would anticipate a significant bounce at that point.

Categories: Betting, Lunacy, Stock Market