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Archive for December, 2014

My FTSE peak signal did not complete

Mon, 15th Dec 2014 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 12th December 2014Well surprise, surprise, I lost my bet! The FTSE peak signal pattern that I saw forming did not complete (by returning to the 20 day moving average) and, instead the index continued down. This is quite unusual and so I am not too disheartened as it was a reasonable bet to make. The market really seems to have got its knickers in a twist over the falling oil price; it is seen as a sign of a slowing economy which is bad for shares, but it could be interpreted the other way – reduced costs for industry and consumers should stimulate demand. So, hopefully, this will just be a short-term panic, though the FTSE could still have further to drop. I wouldn’t be surprised to see my prediction of a 15%+ decline come true, albeit slightly sooner than I expected!

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Categories: Betting, Stock Market Tags: ,

I’ve taken the plunge and bought in.

Tue, 9th Dec 2014 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 12:30 on 9th December 2014The FTSE has done as I predicted on Sunday and is down nearly 100 points today. I have decided to buy March futures with the index at 6,573 and a guaranteed stop 100 points down. I anticipate a rebound back over the 20 day moving average and, hopefully, an attempt on 7,000, before the decline starts in earnest. My initial target for the FTSE is about 6,950, but it is always difficult to predict the size of the final surge in my peak signal pattern so I’ll have to see how it goes and play it by ear. The conspirators are approving of my play though, so I won’t be at all surprised to see it go horribly wrong!

Another FTSE peak signal forming?

Sun, 7th Dec 2014 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 5th December 2014If we get another small dip below the 20 day moving average this week, (and I am expecting that we will) that will form another of my peak signals in the FTSE index. So it looks like we won’t be breaking 7,000 just yet, though we could get close if the final peak is a five-percenter. The last one (in May) was less than 0.1% and the one before that about 4.1% so we could be due a large one, though it is impossible to predict the size of the final peak from looking at the chart. The FTSE has been trading in the range 6,000 to 6,850 for nearly two years now and it is about time it broke out one way or the other. I suspect that what might happen is a failed attempt at 7,000 prompting a 15%+ dip to around 5,800 so that the index can take a good run-up at finally breaking through 7,000.

In spite of my abject failure on the last one, I intend to spread bet on this pattern. I am hoping that we will get a large decline which should make things easier to predict than last time around and I will keep you posted how I do!

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