Archive for March, 2015

The FTSE peak pattern has completed

Tue, 31st Mar 2015 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at close on 31st March 2015The resistance I mentioned in my last post didn’t quite hold, but the FTSE only broke through by 80 points, so my bet was not stopped out. I closed it this morning though, for a 70 point profit, after yesterday’s close just over the 20 day moving average which completed the three dip oscillation about the 20dma starting my peak pattern. This makes a compound profit of 400% for the month. It is not possible to predict how large the final peak will be, but, as it turns out, this time was a one day job as the index has closed below the 20dma again today. So closing my bet now would have made me significantly more profit, but would have been a risk. One day final peaks usually indicate a significant drop, though we may see a short-term bounce back to just below the 20dma first.

Categories: Betting, Stock Market Tags: ,

Will resistance hold at 6980?

Thu, 19th Mar 2015 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-10 at close on 18th March 2015Well, the FTSE has returned to its recent highs, though it’s taken its time about it. I’ve closed my last bet for a 217 point profit and opened a down bet on the assumption that the resistance at 6,980 will prove insurmountable for now. The index stayed below the 20-day moving average for seven days which is considerably longer than in any previous instance of my peak pattern so there is significant doubt about whether this instance is still intact. It is very difficult to predict how big the third dip will be (if my pattern holds), but I wouldn’t be surprised to see something similar to the previous one. I will just have to watch the FTSE closely in the coming days and play it by ear though.

The budget seems to have been fairly uneventful with no significant features for the investor, apart from generally being seen as Tory voter friendly, which the markets generally like. The Federal Reserve’s Open Market Committee statement was also quite neutral, with still no definitive timing for interest rate rises. The markets rose strongly yesterday at the lack of nasty surprises, but I don’t think there is anything to sustain a rally here.

Categories: Betting, Stock Market

Has my dip started already?

Sat, 14th Mar 2015 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at close on 13th March 2015The index has stayed below the 20-day moving average for a week now, so it is looking increasingly likely that my peak pattern will not complete. Stretching a point, if the FTSE were to bounce 150 points on Monday, I suppose I could say it was just about intact, but I am wondering if the decline I had forecast the pattern to presage has started already. I opened a minimum stake up bet at 6,770 which, (amazingly) is still running, having survived a 200+ point dip on the Dow, and I could have closed out at a slight profit on Thursday morning, but it was looking like we might get a quick rebound at that point so I held out for more. The conspirators are adamant that my peak pattern will complete this time and I will make my fortune on the subsequent downturn, but they have said that sort of thing many times before and I am trying to be objective about what the chart says.

Close, but no cigar!

Sun, 8th Mar 2015 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at close on 6th March 2015Well, I could have made a decent profit, but I held out for too much! I shan’t be so greedy next time. The FTSE made a new closing high, but I was looking for a new intra-day high, which didn’t happen, and my bet was stopped out on Friday night at break-even. I am looking to get back in at around 6850 with a target of 6960, though I won’t hang about this time as it looks like the index is changing direction quite quickly.  The Dow is approaching its lower Bollinger band and this should take the FTSE to the level I’m looking for before bouncing, keeping my peak pattern intact.

Categories: Betting, Stock Market Tags: ,

This rally seems to have run out of steam.

Wed, 4th Mar 2015 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at 3rd March 2015Although the FTSE has crept above the resistance at 6,900, making new all-time intra-day and closing highs in the process, it is having difficulty making progress and has now dropped back to a couple of points above the twenty day moving average. A dip to just above the 20dma is the first step of my peak pattern and so I am hoping the pattern will continue and I have opened a spread-bet on a rebound back to recent highs. If the pattern does continue, the index should go sideways for a while, dipping a couple of times below the 20dma before we get a final peak. This could result in the FTSE poking its nose over 7,000, though it is always difficult to predict the size of the final peak in this pattern, and it also depends on the size of the second dip below the 20dma, which could be quite large. I remain optimistic that the next major move will be a decline to around 5,800 over the coming months as I predicted in my last post.

Events in Russia are looking worrying. Being very authoritarian himself, President Putin seems rather paranoid about Western influence on his border, assuming that the Ukranian people’s desire to free themselves of Russian control means that the West is trying to take over there. This makes him unpredictable and I think he could cause some stock market wobbles in the near future.