Archive for May, 2016

FTSE exceeds my target.

Mon, 2nd May 2016 Leave a comment

Chart of FTSE-100 at close on 29th April 2016The FTSE has peaked a couple of hundred points above my target. It very nearly made another instance of my peak pattern (the first dip was a couple of points below the 20 day moving average rather than just above), but it is close enough for me to predict the next couple of months movement based on previous instances of the pattern. Where the peak is 5% high I would expect to see a small, slow decline so I am revising my low target to 6,000 from 5,800. In the short term, we should see the current decline bottom out at around 6,160 (just above where the 20dma crossed the index on the way up to the peak) then bounce to just above the current 20dma (6,282). Thereafter the index will probably hug that average, (which should decline slowly) spiking below a couple of times until a third decline which leads to a bottom just above 6,000 in two to three months time.

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